Within his first 100 days in office, President-elect Donald Trump plans to have the United States back out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a trade deal among 12 Asia-Pacific countries that would slash tariffs and create new standards in labor and environmental protection.

In a video released in November, Trump called the trade deal, which would impact up to 40 percent of the global economy, “a potential disaster” for the U.S. Trump pledged to instead form “fair, bilateral” trade with countries that would help produce jobs and boost industries in the U.S.

Trump was vocal in his opposition to TPP on the campaign trail. At multiple rallies, Trump dismissed the trade deal as a catastrophe, including one in Ohio in June 2016, during which he said the trade deal is promoted by special interest groups “who want to rape our country.”

During his Republican National Convention speech in Cleveland in July, Trump declared TPP “will not only destroy our manufacturing, but it will make America subject to the rulings of foreign governments.”

“I pledge to never sign any trade agreement that hurts our workers, or that diminishes our freedom and independence,” he said.

Similarly he attacked the North American Free Trade Agreement, a free trade deal among the U.S., Canada and Mexico, which was signed under former President Bill Clinton.

TPP negotiations began in an effort to expand a trade deal formed among Brunei, Chile, New Zealand and Singapore in 2006. The U.S. and 11 other countries started negotiations in March 2010 and concluded the trade talk in 2015, but Congress refused to ratify TPP.

Miriam Elman, an associate professor of political science at the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs, said in a 2015 email interview with The Daily Orange that the negotiation took years due to numerous “sticking points,” especially with regard to pharmaceuticals. Pharmaceutical companies and bio-tech industries, Elman explained, wanted their drugs to be protected from biosimilars, cheaper drugs with similar ingredients and effectiveness, while the less developed countries in TPP wanted access to affordable medicine.

Free trade, which usually gains bipartisan support, met fierce opposition during the 2016 presidential election cycle, when both Trump and Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton took stances against TPP.

American business interest groups such as U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the National Association of Manufacturers have given their seals of approval to the trade deal. But labor unions and working-class voters were against TPP.  Both Trump and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Clinton’s challenger in the Democratic primary, tapped into their frustrations and anger toward wage stagnation and declining American manufacturing sectors as part of fast-moving globalization.

The trade pact was part of President Barack Obama’s effort to make the U.S. “pivot” to Asia. But after Trump pulled off an upset victory in November, his announcement of  U.S. withdrawal signifies the demise of one of Obama’s key foreign policies.

For TPP to go into effect, it needs to be ratified by at least six countries that constitute more than 85 percent of the gross domestic product of the TPP-participating countries, according to NBC News. Because the U.S. shares 60 percent of GDP among the 12 nations, U.S participation is a must for the TPP to remain alive.

In response to Trump’s dismissal of the TPP, leaders in Asia-Pacific country leaders are bewildered. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said TPP is “meaningless” without U.S. participation, according to The Associated Press. Then-New Zealand Prime Minister John Key expressed his disappointment shortly after Trump’s comments.

With the U.S. in retreat from committing itself to the trade deal, experts have speculated that China, which did not sign TPP, is poised to fill the power vacuum in world trade that is essential to the global order.

China is luring 16 Asia-Pacific countries, including TPP countries such as Japan and Australia, into its own free trade deal called the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. The U.S. is not participating in that trade negotiation.

Published on January 16, 2017 at 8:43 pm

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